Is this World Series proof that money doesn't bring (baseball) happiness?

- and in fact, evidence that money actively undermines baseball happiness. For the big-market teams, anything less than a World Series is disappointing. Whereas for the Rays (who in April were given a 1.1% chance of winning the World Series by FanGraphs) or Brewers (2.1%), the season is already a success, and winning it all would give their fans more pleasure than a Yankees or Dodgers fan could experience.

No. It's does offer proof that October remains gloriously resistant to being bought outright. But money buys depth and insurance, even if it can't guarantee that your $300m hitters won't spend an off week grounding into double plays. Better to enjoy this peach of a matchup – only the second Fall Classic since 1920 where a first-time winner is guaranteed – without letting baseball's billionaire owner class weaponize it in the coming labor fight, with a salary cap on the table and the sport potentially heading for another protracted lockout.

Yes. High-end talent is nice, but to get to the World Series on a shoestring budget you also need a certain culture. There shall be no tolerating careless mistakes, no getting too comfortable in cushy MLB dugouts, and players must have a clear understanding of their roles and the brand of baseball they're expected to play. That's where Milwaukee and Tampa Bay have truly excelled this season.

What the Brewers need to do to win

Jacob Misiorowski may be the best pitcher in the world, but the cliché that "bullpens win championships" is more true than ever in modern baseball. Luckily for Milwaukee, theirs is one of the best in the game – only the Yankees had a better collective regular season earned run average – and the sweep of the Dodgers means everyone will be starting on full rest.

Make Tampa Bay chase. Milwaukee have the pitching to win this series, but asking them to weather seven nights of high-leverage situations with traffic on the basepaths is inviting trouble. Get ahead in counts, limit free passes and force the Rays to string hits together. The fewer opportunities Tampa Bay have to improvise, the better the Brewers' chances.

The Brewers bullpen is lights out but don't ask them to do too much. The Rays will try to pile up reliever innings in a bid to weaken the core. Also, Game 4 in Tampa will be a bullpen game for Milwaukee, so make sure the unit is kept fresh for that pivotal matchup.

What the Rays need to do to win

Be inventive. Ace Shane McClanahan is injured, but their occasional gambit of using opening pitchers is arguably even more of a power move in a single series at the very end of the season. As for batting, if any two of the "big three" of Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero find their groove at the same time, they'll be hard to keep quiet.

Turn every baserunner into a problem. Swipe a bag, take the extra base and make Milwaukee's fielders execute under pressure. But don't confuse small ball with giving away outs: Díaz, Aranda and Caminero still need to supply damage. The best version of the Rays makes opponents defend everything, including the outfield seats.

Ensure the big three are up and running against the Brewers rotation. When Caminero, Díaz and Aranda struggled in the ALCS, the Guardians took two games and sent Rays fans searching for the nearest cliff. Kevin Cash also must excel in the dugout against healthy competition in Pat Murphy, who won't make Dave Roberts-like mistakes.

One bold prediction

Tampa Bay will clinch the title wearing their Devil Rays throwback jerseys, and within a year will revert to that as the franchise name. They went 12-3 in the regular season wearing them and are now 2-0 in the postseason. If it happens, fan demand will make it hard for the newish owners to resist.

Someone will lose a game after pulling a starter who looks untouchable, and the ensuing argument will briefly eclipse the actual World Series. The manager will point to the matchups, the broadcast will show the abandoned pitcher staring into space and everyone will pretend the alternative outcome was a matter of certainty. (And for Tampa Bay fans, it could be déjà vu.)

Club Tropicana by Wham! becomes the theme song for the Rays and this World Series as the dumpy dome in St Pete becomes the epicenter of the October sports world. Tampa win in seven tight games and fall in love with the worst venue in all of Major League Baseball. They take a 180 turn on the Trop and demand that their new owners drop plans for a new stadium. Talk about bold!

Chandler Simpson, Tampa Bay. He's become the talisman of a team increasingly focused on small ball, and is well on his way to becoming a folk hero for his homer-averse approach. Tight games are often decided by small margins such as a stolen base or a timely bunt. If it happens two or three times at key moments, the underdog could finally have his day.

Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay. There's a temptation to choose someone whose candidacy explains the Rays' entire organizational philosophy. I'll take the less complicated option: the hitter who can put the ball into the seats with the purist-rankling, time-expanding home-run trot. In a series of infinitesimal margins, one emphatic swing can turn the whole thing.

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay. Like Freddy Peralta, Drew Rasmussen has spent some time in a Brewers jersey, and has benefited from whatever they're sprinkling on pitchers in Tampa. The 31-year-old righty was a sixth-round pick who can miss bats and hit his spots with ease. In this World Series, he will reach the pinnacle.

Your winner will be ...

Rays 4-3 Brewers. There's not much between the teams, but the Rays have surpassed every expectation this season and easily won the toughest division in baseball. It's close to a tossup, but the Rays' versatility and Cash's managerial nous might be enough to edge it.

Rays 4-3 Brewers. Milwaukee have the pitching to make every run feel precious, but I trust the Rays' ability to manufacture offense to make the difference in a series where margins will be razor-thin. There's something about this matchup that reminds me of the 1991 World Series between the Twins and Braves: Great Lakes v South, two evenly matched teams with no obvious weaknesses and barely a whisker between them. Expect seven games of mounting tension, managerial second-guessing and repeated reminders that neither of these teams arrived here by accident.

Rays 4-3 Brewers. How could it not go seven? They're so close in culture and approach that you'd be shocked if either of these teams went down without a fight. The Rays have just a little bit more, and a slight advantage at skipper with Kevin Cash. It'll be super tight: Rays in seven.