The 30-man shortlist for the 2026 Ballon d’Or has been announced by organisers France Football, meaning we now know exactly who is in the running for football’s most prestigious individual prize.
Big-name players from Real Madrid, Barcelona, Manchester City and Bayern Munich feature among the nominees after the dust settled on the 2025-26 campaign and World Cup. But which of them will actually get their hands on the golden ball?
With the shortlist confirmed and the award ceremony in October fast approaching, here are our Ballon d’Or power rankings for 2026, based on everything we’ve seen over the past 12 months.
10. Jude Bellingham
The Mbappe paradox. More on him later.
Bellingham looked frustrated, scrutinised and completely out of rhythm in a dysfunctional Real Madrid team. Then he tore the World Cup a new one, reminding everyone what he can do.
Working out where that combination leaves him is tricky, but we still believe Bellingham remains one of the world’s 10 best players in the right set-up. So here he is.
9. Vitinha
Vitinha might have had a genuine chance if this wasn’t a World Cup year. Or if Roberto Martinez hadn’t completely lost the plot and built Portugal around a fading 41-year-old.
Two years in a row now, he’s completely bossed the biggest stage in club football. Arsenal had the lowest share of possession on record in a Champions League final, and his ability to dictate the game on PSG’s terms was a key reason why.
Recency bias means Vitinha may become something of an afterthought, but leaving him outside the top 10 would be a borderline scandal.
8. Erling Haaland
It was an up-and-down year for Haaland.
We had the Norwegian as the frontrunner in the early months of the season, but that was when he was on track to break Messi’s most ridiculous goalscoring records. He eventually dropped out of the list as Manchester City’s title charge faded, although even during a disappointing league campaign, he still comfortably secured a third Premier League Golden Boot in four years. Levels.
And then he conquered America. Seven goals on the biggest stage, with two coming to knock out Brazil, make a strong case for a top-10 placing.
He was the driving force behind Norway’s run to the quarter-finals, a campaign that could go down as the greatest sporting achievement in the nation’s history. If we’re weighting things heavily towards the World Cup, a top-five finish isn’t out of the question.
7. Michael Olise
We still can’t quite believe we’ve got Olise down in seventh, but the events of the year have moved quickly.
Olise hit Ballon d’Or-level form in the spring. He was absolutely sensational during Bayern’s run to the Champions League semi-finals, and we had him sitting inside the top three – even briefly at No.1 – after those brilliant displays against Real Madrid.
He won the German double and enjoyed a far superior 2025-26 campaign than his Les Bleus team-mate Kylian Mbappe, ending with an incredible 22 goals and 31 (!!!) assists in 52 appearances.
Olise was excellent at the World Cup too, but without going all the way, he’ll likely have to settle for pushing for a place in the top five.
If this was purely about ability, the former Crystal Palace winger would have a serious argument for a podium spot. But the wider picture means he may have to settle for a slightly lower position.
Ultimately, Olise failed to deliver in the semi-final defeats to PSG and Spain. Ballon d’Or bids are built on such moments.
6. Lionel Messi
We persevered with Messi in these power rankings throughout over the past 12 months, reasoning that he’d lift No.9 if he could lead Argentina to World Cup glory once again.
His sensational exploits with Inter Miami are effectively irrelevant when it comes to Ballon d’Or consideration, but they did hint he had one last special tournament up his sleeve. And so it came to pass. Our faith in Messi’s greatness was rewarded.
Argentina needed to make it over the line for him to actually win the thing, but his outrageously good World Cup campaign at the age of 39 – eight goals, four assists, pulling off the ultimate carry job to take an otherwise limited team all the way to the final – ought to see him recognised. He should’ve won the Golden Ball.
Messi is the first player to seriously challenge for the Ballon d’Or while playing outside Europe, and he could still push for one last podium finish.
If nothing else, he looks set to become the first player from outside Europe’s major leagues to earn a nomination (he moved to Inter Miami after the relevant eligibility period last time) since Neymar at Santos in 2011.
5. Ousmane Dembele
Only Messi and Ronaldo have successfully defended the Ballon d’Or since Marco van Basten in the late 1980s. As good as Dembele has been, he is not quite in that company.
He deserves credit for once again delivering important goals as PSG retained their European crown. But in a World Cup year, that achievement already feels like it’s faded into the background.
And come the biggest stage, Dembele certainly enjoyed a solid tournament, scoring six goals, but he was not even France’s best player, let alone in the entire World Cup.
Putting the World Cup factor aside, he simply was not as dominant or indispensable as he was the year before. He started just 11 league games last season, which feels more like a luxury player than the world’s best.
4. Kylian Mbappe
What a weird year it’s been for Mbappe.
Brutally booed by the Bernabeu home crowd, an (admittedly silly) online petition reaching millions of signatures for him to be sold, a second season without any major silverware.
The charge being that he’s turned Los Blancos into PSG – a maladjusted collective, hampered by his lack of defensive effort, less likely to win the Champions League as a result. His former club winning it back-to-back in his absence only emphasises that idea.
Given that, you’d think he’d be nowhere near the Ballon d’Or debate. It’s a heavily narrative-influenced award, and lifting big trophies is now the be-all and end-all.
And yet… Mbappe scored 58 goals for club and country. He’s now the World Cup’s all-time top goalscorer, and the first player in history to win more than one Golden Boot.
When you watch him tear apart defences on the world stage, you could certainly make a cogent argument that we’re looking at the best player in the world. Could it not be that simple?
Almost certainly not, but Mbappe might have done enough to challenge for a podium placing for only the second time in his career. Particularly now that Florentino Perez’s PR campaign has cranked into overdrive.
He will be 28 (at least) before he wins the Champions League, and probably the Ballon d’Or too. Who saw that coming 10 years ago?
3. Rodri
Six months ago, nobody – least of all us – was entertaining the idea that Rodri could win a second golden ball this year.
Throughout the 2025-26 season, he was good, sometimes very good, but rarely , as he gradually made his return to full fitness following the ACL injury he suffered in 2024.
He was noticeably absent from the Champions League latter stages, and an FA Cup and League Cup double are but a minor blip when it comes to Ballon d’Or consideration.
What a difference a World Cup can make. Rodri has reestablished himself as the best midfielder in world football. At least as good as at Euro 2024, which won him the award last time.
We have quibbles with Rodri winning the Golden Ball, given how strong the entire Spain team was. If you give it to the player that embodies La Roja’s possession style (and Rodri’s passing starts were ), then why didn’t Xavi Hernandez win the award in 2010?
Thing is, Xavi finished third in the 2010 Ballon d’Or. He’d have been a worthy winner that year if prime Messi didn’t exist, and there’s no such equivalent candidate today. The final’s match-winner Ferran Torres is no Andres Iniesta; he ain’t finishing second.
Ronaldo in 2002. Lothar Matthaus in 1990. Fabio Cannavaro in 2006. Messi in 2023. Can you even remember what they did with their clubs in those years? Exactly. Sometimes a great World Cup is all it takes, so Rodri has to be a contender.
We’re talking ourselves round to the idea.
2. Lamine Yamal
The Barcelona wonderkid finished runner-up last year despite notching considerably fewer goals and assists than Mohamed Salah. Could he go one better this year?
If you’d told us 12 months ago that Yamal would enjoy the best goalscoring season of his fledgling career to date, inspire Barcelona to retain their La Liga crown, and then go on to win the World Cup…
…We’d have assumed he’d be a shoo-in for the Ballon d’Or. Reality has turned out a bit different.
It’s possible. A hamstring injury hampered Yamal’s World Cup preparation. He was managed carefully and grew into the tournament, and was decent enough in Spain’s well-deserved World Cup triumph, but he didn’t look the world-beater in waiting that he did in Euro 2024.
Put simply, one goal and one assist is just not a Ballon d’Or-worthy contribution. He didn’t shine like the other stars. The fact he wasn’t in the conversation for the Golden Ball, or even the Young Player Award, is a testament to that.
But the wider picture – his very good season with Barcelona, and his blossoming superstar status – might just carry him all the way.
We’d argue that this year would be too soon, though. His time will surely come.
1. Harry Kane
Kane has consistently been among the frontrunners over the past 12 months. His place fluctuated a bit as it looked like other superstars might outshine him in the end, but that never came to pass.
The England captain won a second European Golden Shoe, enjoying one of the best goalscoring seasons in history, bettering Cristiano Ronaldo’s career-best tally, to fire Bayern Munich to a domestic double. Sixty-one(!) goals in 2025-26 was a truly ridiculous total, and that doesn’t even include his international exploits.
He couldn’t rubberstamp his Ballon d’Or bid with one of the really big trophies, but he reached the semi-finals of both the Champions League and World Cup and boasted very strong goalscoring campaigns in both.
PSG winning the Champions League and Spain winning the World Cup help Kane’s case immeasurably. Two sides all about the collective, built in the image of their great coaches. Neither boast a talisman or headline-hogging superstar.
And so you’d probably have to say that Kane has been the standout individual in world football over the last 12 months.
All of the football from the eligibility period has now been played, but this is far from cut and dried. Expect all kinds of politicking and PR campaigns until the ceremony in October.
Kane might not win that battle, but he deserves the award.
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