Andrea Kimi Antonelli is virtually guaranteed to win the world championship at the Mexican Grand Prix this weekend.

But as doubt remains over whether Formula 1 will be able to hold either of its final rounds in the Middle East, any movement in the situation before this weekend’s race could ensure the title is not settled on-track.

Carlos Sainz Jnr last weekend expressed doubt over whether the Qatar and Abu Dhabi grands prix could go ahead due to the ongoing war between Iran and the USA. The war has already forced the cancellation of the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix and the relocation of the Bahrain Grand Prix to Malaysia.

This reduced the number of rounds this season from 24 to 23. A further reduction remains possible, and should that happen none of Antonelli’s rivals will be able to prevent him taking the championship.

F1 has indicated it is prepared to hold an alternative final race at Imola in Italy if necessary. However if both races in the Middle East are cancelled and only one replacement event is arranged, the total number of championship points available over the remainder of the season will be reduced.

With 125 points currently remaining, George Russell needs to out-score his team mate by 124 to take the title. Lewis Hamilton needs to beat Antonelli by 125 points.

Both scenarios are extremely unlikely as they would essentially involve the championship leader failing to score any points over the remaining five rounds. But another race cancellation with no replacement, reducing the total points available to 100, would make it impossible for Antonelli to be beaten.

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The Moto GP series is due to hold its rescheduled Qatar round on the weekend after the Mexican Grand Prix. However many riders are demanding reassurances from the event promoters about their security, safety and compensation in the event of any last-minute changes.

Only a few F1 world championship titles have not been decided by the result of a grand prix. Max Verstappen won the 2023 world championship in a sprint race, coincidentally held in Qatar. In 1987 Nelson Piquet clinched the title when team mate Nigel Mansell withdrew from the Japanese Grand Prix after injuring his back in a crash during practice.

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