We’re about a quarter of the way through the 2026-27 Premier League season, but the table is beginning to take shape after nine rounds of fixtures. What do the underlying statistics tell us? Which teams are playing better than their results might suggest, and which teams are overperforming?
That’s where good old ‘expected goals’, rattler of Proper Football Men across the country, helps us out. We’ve delved into the data to see which teams are doing best and worst in terms of the quality of chances they’ve created and faced.
Brighton & Hove Albion remain among the division’s most prolific attacking sides, but Manchester City remain top of the xG charts. Enzo Maresca’s side have created 18.3xG, ahead of Brighton’s 17.2xG.
The Seagulls are still comfortably outperforming their underlying numbers, having scored 6.8 goals more than their xG suggests they should have. Creating bagloads of chances and being clinical with them is a pretty deadly combination.
Elsewhere, Michael Carrick might be less heartened by Manchester United’s underlying numbers than he was a few weeks ago. The Red Devils remain seventh for xG, but their defensive record has deteriorated considerably.
Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool are all unsurprisingly in the top half. Bournemouth are up in third, while Nottingham Forest and Brentford are also among the division’s top six for chances created.
At the other end, the reigning champions continue to boast comfortably the best defensive numbers in the division. Mikel Arteta’s Gunners have conceded just 7.3xG in nine matches, almost two fewer than second-placed Nottingham Forest.
Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest and Brighton round out the top five for xG difference, while Forest surprisingly rank second for xG against, having conceded just 9.2xG so far.
Taking a look at the picture as a whole, Carrick’s Manchester United are no longer looking quite so unfortunate. They’ve slipped to 12th for expected goal difference, with a negative xGD of -1.0, and rank 16th for xG against. Their 11 expected points put them 13th in the division.
That’s a considerable shift from earlier in the campaign, when their underlying numbers suggested they were simply getting unlucky. Now there’s a stronger argument that their problems run deeper, particularly defensively.
Tottenham, meanwhile, have seen their underlying numbers improve considerably. They’ve climbed to 13th for xG and fourth for xG against, with their defensive solidity providing a foundation even if their attacking output remains relatively modest.
The underlying numbers are probably most concerning for Crystal Palace, who sit bottom for xG difference (-8.0) and xG against (19.2). Newcastle United are also struggling, ranking 17th for xG difference, while Coventry City have created the fewest expected goals in the division.
Here are all the relevant 2026-27 Premier League tables for xG so far, with the data taken from FotMob.
1. Manchester City — 18.3 (+1.7)
2. Brighton & Hove Albion — 17.2 (+6.8)
3. AFC Bournemouth — 15.8 (-1.8)
4. Arsenal — 14.9 (-0.9)
5. Nottingham Forest — 14.6 (-8.6)
6. Brentford — 14.0 (+2.0)
7. Manchester United — 14.0 (-4.0)
8. Fulham — 13.7 (-4.7)
9. Liverpool — 13.3 (-2.3)
10. Chelsea — 13.3 (+5.7)
11. Sunderland — 13.2 (-6.2)
12. Ipswich Town — 12.2 (+1.8)
13. Tottenham Hotspur — 11.7 (-1.7)
14. Leeds United — 11.2 (-2.2)
15. Crystal Palace — 11.2 (-2.2)
16. Aston Villa — 10.9 (-0.9)
17. Everton — 10.1 (-2.1)
18. Hull City — 9.1 (+1.9)
19. Newcastle United — 9.1 (+2.9)
20. Coventry City — 8.3 (+0.7)
1. Arsenal — 7.3 (-2.3)
2. Nottingham Forest — 9.2 (+2.8)
3. AFC Bournemouth — 10.0 (+3.0)
4. Tottenham Hotspur — 10.1 (-0.1)
5. Liverpool — 10.6 (-1.6)
6. Manchester City — 11.7 (-1.7)
7. Everton — 11.7 (-2.7)
8. Leeds United — 11.8 (-3.8)
9. Chelsea — 12.6 (+2.4)
10. Brentford — 12.7 (-3.7)
11. Fulham — 12.8 (-1.8)
12. Brighton & Hove Albion — 13.0 (-6.0)
13. Hull City — 13.2 (-3.2)
14. Coventry City — 13.7 (+2.3)
15. Newcastle United — 13.7 (+0.3)
16. Manchester United — 15.0 (=)
17. Aston Villa — 15.1 (-2.1)
18. Sunderland — 15.7 (+1.3)
19. Ipswich Town — 17.2 (+0.8)
20. Crystal Palace — 19.2 (+1.8)
xG Difference (xG – xGA)
1. Arsenal — 7.6
2. Manchester City — 6.6
3. AFC Bournemouth — 5.8
4. Nottingham Forest — 5.4
5. Brighton & Hove Albion — 4.2
6. Liverpool — 2.7
7. Tottenham Hotspur — 1.6
8. Brentford — 1.3
9. Fulham — 0.9
10. Chelsea — 0.7
11. Leeds United — -0.6
12. Manchester United — -1.0
13. Everton — -1.6
14. Sunderland — -2.5
15. Hull City — -4.1
16. Aston Villa — -4.2
17. Newcastle United — -4.6
18. Ipswich Town — -5.0
19. Coventry City — -5.4
20. Crystal Palace — -8.0
1. Arsenal — 18 ()
2. Manchester City — 17 ()
3. Nottingham Forest — 16 ()
4. AFC Bournemouth — 15 ()
5. Brighton & Hove Albion — 15 ()
6. Liverpool — 14 ()
7. Tottenham Hotspur — 14 ()
8. Fulham — 13 ()
9. Chelsea — 13 ()
10. Brentford — 12 ()
11. Sunderland — 12 ()
12. Leeds United — 12 ()
13. Manchester United — 11 ()
14. Aston Villa — 10 ()
15. Ipswich Town — 10 ()
16. Everton — 10
17. Hull City — 9 ()
18. Coventry City — 8 ()
19. Crystal Palace — 8 ()
20. Newcastle United — 8 ()
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